Navigant Market ProjectionThe market for commercial lighting is on the verge of a major transformation, says Navigant Research. Falling prices and improving quality for LED lighting is driving widespread adoption. The speed of this transformation promises to be faster (43% CAGR)than previous transformations due to new lamp types, as this one technology appears likely to surpass all others in nearly every metric of quality and efficiency. Navigant forecasts the market will nearly double from 68 million LED Lamps in 2013 to reach 1.3 BILLION units annually by 2021.

The markets for every other lighting technology will contract over that period. Bye Bye (Incandescent) Bulbs!

“LED lighting has already begun to enter the [state] commercial market in significant volume, and will grow rapidly over the remainder of the decade,” says Jesse Foote, research analyst at Navigant Research. “Specific applications, such as cold storage, have already seen widespread LED adoption, while spaces that are currently lit by efficient linear fluorescent lamps await further LED price declines. The industry has entered a period of rapid upheaval, as established and startup companies scramble to position themselves to benefit from the rise of LED lighting.”

Although shipments of LED products will expand at a compound annual growth rate of 44.3 percent through 2021, according to the report, they will not be sufficient to compensate for the overall decline in commercial lighting revenue as the industry moves toward much more long-lasting lamps. Lamp and luminaire revenue will both grow for the next few years, the study concludes, before beginning an inexorable decline in 2017.

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